2012年9月11日星期二

How Obama and Manmohan will drive up the price of gold

I love reading police procedurals, a genre of crime fiction in which murders are investigated by police detectives. These detectives are smart but they are nowhere as smart as Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes. They look for clues and the right connections, to link them up and figure out who the murderer is.

And unlike Poirot or Holmes they take time to come to their conclusions. Often they are wrong and take time to get back on the right track. But what they don’t stop doing is think of connections.The indoor positioning industry is heavily involved this year

Like Chief Inspector Van Veeteren, a fictional character created by Swedish writer H?kan Nesser, says above “there are more connections in the world than there are particles in the universe… The hard bit is finding the right ones.”

The same is true about gold as well. There are several connections that are responsible for the recent rapid rise in the price of the yellow metal. And these connections need to continue if the gold rally has to continue.

As I write this, gold is quoting at $1,734 per ounce (1 ounce equals 31.1 gm). Gold is traded in dollar terms internationally. It has given a return of 8.4 percent since the beginning of August and 5.2 percent since the beginning of this month in dollar terms. In rupee terms gold has done equally well and crossed an all-time high of Rs 32,500 per 10 gm.

The Federal Reserve of United States (the American central bank like the Reserve Bank of India in India) is expected to announce the third round of money printing, technically referred to as quantitative easing (QE). The idea is that with more money in the economy, banks will lend,Find detailed product information for howo truck piston ring, and consumers and businesses will borrow and spend that money. And this in turn will revive the slowing American economy.

Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has been resorting to what investment letter writer Gary Dorsch calls “open mouth operations” – dropping hints that QE-3 is on its way, for a while now. The earlier two rounds of money printing by the Federal Reserve were referred as QE-1 and QE-1. Hence, the expected third round is being referred to as QE-3.

At its last meeting held on 31 July-1 August, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) led by Bernanke said in a statement, “The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.” The phrase to mark here is additional accommodation, which is a hint at another round of quantitative easing. Gold has rallied by more than 8 percent since then.

But that was more than a month back. Ben Bernanke has dropped more hints since then. In a speech titled Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis, made at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on 31 August 2012, Bernanke said: “Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.”

Central bank governors are known not to speak in a language that everybody can understand. As Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Bernanke took over, once famously said, “If you think you understood what I was saying, you weren’t listening.”

But the phrase to mark in Bernanke’s speech is “additional policy accommodation,” which is essentially a euphemism for quantitative easing, or more printing of dollars by the Federal Reserve.

The FOMC, in its 1 August statement, more or less said the same thing. Why didn’t that statement attract much interest? And why did Bernanke’s statement at Jackson Hole get everybody excited and has led to the yellow metal rising by more than 5 percent since the beginning of this month.

“We will continue to monitor economic developments closely and to evaluate whether additional monetary easing would be beneficial. In particular, the Committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly,” he said.How It's Made Plastic injection molds.

The two statements have an uncanny similarity to them. In 2010 the phrase used was “additional monetary accommodation”. In 2012, the phrase used became “additional policy accommodation”.

Bernanke’s August 2010 statement was followed by the second round of quantitative easing or QE-2 as it was better known. The Federal Reserve pumped in $600 billion of new money into the economy by printing it. Drawing from this,We have a fantastic range of Glass Tiles and glass mosaic Tiles. the market is expecting that the Federal Reserve will resort to another round of money printing by the time November is here.

Any round of quantitative easing ensures that there are more dollars in the financial system than before. To protect themselves from this debasement, people buy another asset; that is, gold in this case, something which cannot be debased. During earlier days, paper money was backed by gold or silver. When governments printed more paper money than they had precious metal backing it, people simply turned up with their paper at the central bank and demanded it be converted into gold or silver.Beautiful new hands free access jewelry is modeled by these members of the Artcamp IT team, Now, whenever people see more and more of paper money, the smarter ones simply go out there and buy that gold. Also, often this lot of investors doesn’t wait for the QE to start. Any hint of QE is enough for them to start buying gold.

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