For the last three years, manufacturing has been the hero of the U.S.
economic recovery. While housing and consumer spending have been slow
to come back, manufacturing activity has outpaced the rest of the
economy ever since the recession ended in June 2009. Capital
expenditures and exports have contributed close to 75 percent of all
gross domestic product growth since then. That’s led to 500,000 new jobs
in the last two years. That’s not enough to replace the 1.8 million
manufacturing jobs lost since 2007, but it gave President Obama some
nice campaign fodder and fueled excitement that a manufacturing
renaissance was under way in America.
The truth is starker.
Industry has essentially flat-lined since the end of the first quarter
of 2012, and recent data suggest manufacturing may be in a recession. In
November, the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers
Index, a broad measure of manufacturing activity, fell for the fourth
time in six months; it’s at its lowest level since the recession ended.
Manufacturing has shed 24,000 jobs since July, including 7,000 in
November. Exports are falling faster than expected, leading to a record
monthly manufacturing trade deficit with China in October, the second
record monthly high since July. Even points of strength are starting to
weaken: New orders for defense and transportation equipment fell in
October.Quickparts builds injection molds
using aluminum or steel to meet your program. General Motors (GM) may
have to cut production to reduce its inventory of unsold trucks, which
is double the normal levels.
“I think it’s pretty clear that
we’ve reentered a manufacturing recession,” says Alan Tonelson, a
research fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council, which
represents some 2,000 small and medium-size manufacturers. Businesses,
spooked by the fiscal cliff, have been cutting back on investments and
reining in hiring as they wait to see if their taxes will rise next
year, and if they will still be able to count on government contracts.
According
to data compiled by RBC Capital Markets, manufacturing activity has
either been flat or contracted during the past two months in 21 of 31
countries it surveyed, including Japan, China, Australia, and much of
Europe. Part of what got U.S. manufacturing on its feet three years ago
was strong demand from emerging markets. That’s weakening. “The U.S.
benefited from a positive feedback loop,” says Jacob Oubina, senior U.S.
economist at RBC. “Now we’re stuck in a negative feedback loop.”
The
slowdown has been broad-based, from defense contractors to companies
supplying the oil and gas industry. Sales are down 20 percent this year
at Hamill Manufacturing, a defense contractor outside Pittsburgh that
makes parts for nuclear reactors in submarines and aircraft carriers.
Hamill depends on the Pentagon for 80 percent of its business. “I’m not
too enthusiastic about next year either,” says Chief Executive Officer
Jeff Kelly, who’s worried about rising health-care costs coupled with
severe cuts in defense spending.
For most of the year, business
was booming at MIC Group, a Brenham (Tex.)-based maker of mechanical
parts used in fracking.Find detailed product information for howo tractor
and other products. In August it was turning down business it couldn’t
handle and on the verge of buying $15 million in new equipment, says
Roger Atkins, vice president of sales and marketing. Then, in September,
clients started canceling orders over concerns about the fiscal cliff
and having too much inventory going into next year, says Atkins. MIC has
yet to buy the equipment.
“Six months ago our members were
still positive,” says Dave Tilstone, president of the National Tooling
and Machining Association. “Now, over the last couple months, all that
optimism has gone away.” Machining and metal companies usually sense
changes in the economy before other industries do, since a factory that
wants to expand buys machine tools first to make the other manufacturing
gear it needs. “We’re like the canary in the coal mine,” says Tilstone.
America’s manufacturing industrial production is only 63
percent of what it was in December 2007, according to data from the
Federal Reserve. Despite rising wages in China and a weak dollar,
imports continue to gain market share in the U.S.Find detailed product
information for howo tractor
and other products. According to data compiled by Tonelson, imports’
share of manufactured goods sold in the U.S. rose to 38 percent in 2011.
In 2007 it was 34 percent. “There is no evidence of a manufacturing
renaissance,” says Dan Meckstroth, chief economist with the
Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation. “We’ve had a
rebound from a very deep recession,The term 'hands free access control' means the token that identifies a user is read from within a pocket or handbag. but that’s about all you can say.”
As
of the first quarter of 2012, 304,000 manufacturing plants were
operating in the U.S., 27,000 fewer than at the end of 2007, according
to Meckstroth’s analysis of data compiled by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. That’s not to say that new factories haven’t opened, just
that those that have employ fewer workers. Most manufacturers spent the
last few years buying new equipment to increase automation and
productivity, rather than hiring workers. Since the recession, Moseys’
Production Machinists, an Anaheim-based maker of parts for medical lab
equipment, has spent more than $2 million on automated machines that can
run 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Back in 2008, Mosey had 80
employees and about $11 million in sales. Today it has just 35 employees
and $7 million in sales. “We focused on increasing capacity without
adding labor,” says CEO Bob Mosey. “We laid off a lot of people that we
didn’t end up replacing.”
The Indians are fresh off of winning
the Division III championship, and will look to make their way back to
Yale this season. A lot of offense has since left the team, but it will
retain a strong defensive presence, and one of the best goalies in the
state in the form of Drew O’Leary, who was a key cog in last season’s
title run. Coach’s only concern heading into the season will be how much
offense the team can manufacture. With Brendan Richard coming back, the
Indians will have a legitimate threat on offense, as the senior forward
is approaching the 100 goal mark for his career, and scored the
game-winner in last season’s title game. Should he, and a few others
form a cohesive offensive unit, the Indians will once again be heading
back to the playoffs, hunting for another title.
“We lost a lot
of scoring, but most of our defense returns,” head coach Dave
Harackiewicz. “If we can develop an offensive attack we will be very
competitive this season.”
While the co-op program included
Newington and Berlin last season, this year the two schools will be
joined by Manchester. Three players from Manchester will join the ranks,
and they will help bring size to the defense.
“We will have
three Manchester kids joining us this season,” Harackiewicz said. “It
was a last-minute addition to the co-op program, and we’re happy to have
them. They are good character kids who I expect to make an impact as
the season goes on.”
The Indians had quite the season last year,
posting a 22-2 record, and with winning the championship, it will be a
tough act to follow. While many high school teams usually experience a
rebuilding year after winning it all, the Newington-Berlin-Manchester
team will do more re-tooling than rebuilding.High quality stone mosaic tiles. With so much returning talent, the Indians will once again be a force in Division III hockey.
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